obama opinion polls latest
If Obama edges Hillary slightly but….?
If Obama edges Hillary slightly in delegates, but fails to win any remaining states and sinks disastrously in the national polls, do you think that Obama will still be given the Democratic nomination anyway?
In my opinion, the Dems will have to give Hillary the nomination if Obama’s unfavorable numbers continue to climb nationally and his favorables continue to sink.
The Dems will be in a really tough spot when they realize that the candidate with the most delegates is actually a much bigger underdog in the general election.
I think this gives Hillary a real chance given the latest polls.
[Big Sigh]
For those who are upset about the Super-delegates “stealing” the nomination, there are reasons they’re not required to vote *blindly* with the will of the people. The elected delegates, chosen by voters, can’t determine the nominee unless a candidate earns enough of them to matter. (this time, it’s something like 2,025) Reaching that magic number of delegates is like insurance… like a mathematical guarantee that the nominee wins by a *safe enough* margin to be the *strongest possible* candidate in the general election. As far as elected delegates go, “majority wins” are irrelevant by nature.
Neither candidate can get to the magic number of delegates now. Popularity is folly. Polls go up and down all the time. And, a small margin of a lead, does not easily translate into the *strongest* candidate. In other words, the race is too close to call without help from the Super-delegates; their job is to *save* the party from scenarios like this one, not to *destroy* it. The vast majority of these people have a deeper understanding of US politics than one could achieve from a couch, in front of TV. Most will not make decisions that would sabotage the party. Most are staying quiet right now, (Bill Richardson = poor example) and most are not interfering; they want to see how this race plays itself out, as they should.
Provided they’re not all corrupt; the Super-del’s will vote for the the *safest*, most *elect-able* candidate, and will have hardcore logic to support whatever decision they make. They should NOT say, “Oh, there is just something about him; I don’t know what it is.” The nominee will be whoever can beat McCain in November, that’s all there is to it. And, not only is this fair, it’s a matter of survival for the party as a whole.
That said, if things keep going in the direction they are, I’m afraid the republicans will rip Obama to pieces if he’s matched against McCain. So, I agree… the Super-del’s will probably have have no choice but to nominate Hillary. In my opinion, that’s the smartest choice anyway, she’s a formidable competitor and not afraid of republicans. Personally, I think it will be awesome to see her run against McCain!
